PRINT THIS PAGE Turkey Macroscope: July 200507/09/2005. Source: Global Securities.
While the main indicators for Turkey released during the June-July period showed no imminent risks, says Global Securities, there were some mixed results raising concern over the prospects of further medium-term improvement in macro variables. While the risk of not meeting the year-end inflation target is low, mixed messages from May and June figures brought some concern over core indices (see ‘More Mixed blessings’, July 3), together with a warning from the CBT regarding the attainment of next year’s target (5%) and a pause in rate cuts. The trade deficit in May was a record-high, as raw material imports (and the oil- price-effect) remain the key item to be watched given the deceleration of imports in other areas (see ‘Trade deficit keeps breaking records’, June 30).
Continued weakening in leading sectors of the expansion cycle, namely autos, white goods and chemicals, led to further slowdown in industrial production (see ‘IP: Deceleration underway’, July 8). As a result, and as expected, growth is normalizing with 1Q05 GDP expansion declining to 4.8% following the more than twice as high pace observed in 1H04. Further deceleration is likely in 2Q (see ‘Growth normalizes’, June 30).
On the policy front, budget figures were positive, as the primary surplus appeared strong and the overall deficit continued to improve, encouraged by lower interest expenditure. Yet revenue dynamics remain poor and structural problems on the expenditure side persist (see ‘June Budget: ‘Same old story’, July 14). The slowdown in fiscal reforms (social security) resulted in incompletion of the first review of the IMF program (see ‘Good timing hinges on government will’ June 29). The CBT kept its policy rate intact following the July 8 meeting at 14.25%, and continued purchasing reserves, including an estimated US$2.5bn intervention on July 22. Yields on local bonds remained broadly in the 16-17% range during June-mid July, corresponding to real rates of 9-9.5% on a forward-looking basis.
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Global Securities (Global Menkul Deðerler AÞ) is Turkey's leading independent financial house providing brokerage services in capital market activities, corporate finance advisory and fund management services to international and domestic clients. Established in 1990, Global Securities has received over 40 awards including recent acclaim from Euromoney magazine in which Global Securities was rated Best Domestic Securities House, Best Equity House, and Best M&A House.
Brokerage Services:The group's capital brokerage strategy entails the provision of high quality service to select international and domestic clients. A leader in capital markets since its foundation, Global Securities has 11 outlets in Turkey and a subsidiary in New York and Kazakhistan. Ýn addition to a large domestic distribution network, Global Securities provides their investors with timely access to Turkish capital markets through its call center (444 0 321) as well as a online trading website for domestic clients (global.com.tr). Global Securities is the first and only Turkish financial house to hold a NASD and SEC license in the USA to provide buy and sell brokerage services to domestic clients active on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets.
In terms of net commissions, among independent brokers, Global Securities consistently ranked at the top of the list from 2000 to 2004H1 (when including bank affiliated brokers, Global Securities ranked 5th and 1st in 2003 and 2004H1, respectively). Global Securities' average margin lending market share of 7.6% throughout the 2000-2003 period, more than doubled to 17% by 2004H1.
Across the board in all key productivity metrics, Global outperforms industry averages with high share in net commissions despite low share in physical presence (number of branches and staff) in industry and its significant above-market net commission revenues and margin lending volume per branch/employee.
Investment Banking Services: Since 1994, through the public offering of approximately 60 corporations, Global Securities has generated considerable resources for the national economy. The Corporate Finance Team, which placed more than US$3.40b between 1993 and 2004, has evolved selectively to lead privatizations, public offerings, mergers and takeovers. Moreover, Corporate finance was active in block trades placing US$200m for Turkish blue-chips and small caps including Koç Holding, Akbank, Hürriyet, Acýbadem and THY during 2004.
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